O mercado de PCs deve ter uma retomada relativa, em 2014, após queda de 9,5%, em 2013; Mercado de tablets deve desacelerar, este ano, e chegar a 256 milhões de unidades
De acordo com o Gartner, Inc., líder mundial em pesquisa e aconselhamento sobre tecnologia, as vendas mundiais combinadas de dispositivos (PCs, tablets, ultrabooks e telefones móveis) devem alcançar 2,4 bilhões de unidades, em 2014, um aumento de 4,2% em relação a 2013 (veja tabela 1).
Gartner Says Worldwide Traditional PC, Tablet, Ultramobile and Mobile Phone Shipments to Grow 4.2 Per Cent in 2014
Worldwide PC Market to Show Relative Revival in 2014 after Falling 9.5 Per Cent in 2013
Worldwide Tablet Market to Slow Down in 2014 and Reach 256 Million Units
Worldwide combined shipments of devices (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones) are projected to reach 2.4 billion units in 2014, a 4.2 per cent increase from 2013 (see Table 1), according to Gartner, Inc.
“2014 will be marked by a relative revival of the global PC market,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. After declining 9.5 per cent in 2013, the global PC market (desk-based, notebook and premium ultramobile) is on pace to contract only 2.9 per cent in 2014.
“Business upgrades from Windows XP and the general business replacement cycle will lessen the downward trend, especially in Western Europe,” said Mr Atwal. “This year, we anticipate nearly 60 million professional PC replacements in mature markets.” The traditional PC market (desk-based and notebook) will follow the same downward trend and is on pace to contract 6.7 per cent in 2014 and 5.3 per cent in 2015.
Table 1
Worldwide Device Shipments by Segment (Thousands of Units)
|
Device Type
|
|
2013
|
|
2014
|
|
2015
|
|
| Traditonal PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook)
|
|
296,131
|
|
276,221
|
|
261,657
|
|
| Ultramobiles, Premium
|
|
21,517
|
|
32,251
|
|
55,032
|
|
PC Market Total
|
|
317,648
|
|
308,472
|
|
316,689
|
|
| Tablets
|
|
206,807
|
|
256,308
|
|
320,964
|
|
| Mobile Phones
|
|
1,806,964
|
|
1,862,766
|
|
1,946,456
|
|
| Other Ultramobiles (Hybrid and Clamshell)
|
|
2,981
|
|
5,381
|
|
7,645
|
|
Total
|
|
2,334,400
|
|
2,432,927
|
|
2,591,753
|
|
Source: Gartner (June 2014)
As with any devices, adoption goes through phases from the early to the late adopter; tablets are currently moving onto the latter part of that curve in mature markets. Gartner estimates that sales of tablets will see a relative slowdown in 2014 to reach 256 million units, an increase of 23.9 per cent from 2013. Lower demand from users for tablets with smaller screens, some in favour of larger screens, in mature markets, and the shift towards phablets in South-East Asia are slowing global tablet penetration. “The next wave of adoption will be driven by lower price points rather than superior functionality,” said Mr Atwal.
Sales of mobile phones are expected to reach 1.9 billion units in 2014, a 3.1 per cent increase from 2013. Sales of smartphones, which exceeded those of the rest of the market in 2013, will continue to do well, and Gartner estimates that smartphone sales will represent 88 per cent of global mobile phone sales by 2018 — up from 66 per cent in 2014.
In the operating system (OS) market, Android and iOS are driving the growth with a 30 per cent and 15 per cent increase, respectively, in 2014 (see Table 2). “We expect the announcement of the new Apple iPhone 6 will attract pent-up demand for users who want a larger screen,” said Annette Zimmermann, research director at Gartner. “Windows phones will exhibit strong growth from a low base in 2014, and are projected to reach a 10 per cent market share by 2018 — up from 4 per cent in 2014.”
Table 2
Worldwide Device Shipments by Operating System (Thousands of Units)
| Operating System
|
|
2013
|
|
2014
|
|
2015
|
|
| Android
|
|
898,944
|
|
1,168,282
|
|
1,370,893
|
|
| Windows
|
|
326,060
|
|
333,419
|
|
373,694
|
|
| iOS/Mac OS
|
|
236,200
|
|
271,115
|
|
301,349
|
|
| Others
|
|
873,195
|
|
660,112
|
|
545,817
|
|
Total
|
|
2,334,400
|
|
2,432,927
|
|
2,591,753
|
|
Shipments include mobile phones, ultramobiles (including tablets) and PCs
Source: Gartner (June 2014)
Gartner’s detailed market forecast data is available in “Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles, and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2011-2018, 2Q14 Update” and on Gartner’s web site at http://www.gartner.com/document/2780117.
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